Schorsch
Alien
Es ist mal Zeit einen Thread zu starten, in dem die spezifischen Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftskrise und dem entsprechenden Nachfragerückgang zusammen gefasst werden.
Hier mal ein erster Artikel:
Die Produktion soll im nächsten Jahr wohl zwischen 15 und 30% sinken, so Prognosen und Statements verschiedener Analysten und Entscheidungsträger. Die Prognose hängt sehr stark davon ab, wann mit einer Wirtschaftsbelebung gerechnet wird.
Airbus versucht nach eigener Aussage Entlassungen zu verhindern.
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Zum letzten Satz: Das ist natürlich süßes Brot für die dummen Leute. Airbus entlässt fröhlich und zahlreich, natürlich ohne Sozialplan und Abfindung. Nur eben nicht die eigenen Leute, sondern "Zulieferer". Daher ähnliche "Nebelkerzen" immer mit etwas Salz zu sich nehmen: die großen Läden brauchen niemanden zu feuern, sie wälzen alles auf ihre Zulieferer und zT Leiharbeiter ab. Diese sind dann die klassischen Mitarbeiter zweiter Klasse (bei Zeitarbeitern kann man fast sagen dritter Klasse).
Hier mal ein erster Artikel:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/15/business/global/15iht-airbus.html?_r=1&scp=3&sq=+Boeing&st=nytNY Times schrieb:PARIS — Airbus executives warned over the weekend that output at their European factories could fall by as much as one-fourth over the next two years as the aircraft maker and its suppliers adjust to the sharp drop in air traffic and widening losses at the world’s airlines. But the company insisted that it could absorb those cuts without resorting to large-scale layoffs — at least for now.
Earlier this year, Airbus said that it planned to slow production of its A320 single-aisle passenger planes to 34 per month from a previous plan of 40, while output of its wide-body A330 was frozen at a rate of 8.5 per month, down from 10 per month. Deliveries of the double-decker A380 are being limited to 14, compared with an initial target of 18 per month.
But those cuts, which amount to a slowdown of about 15 percent, may not be sufficient to meet the slide in demand from airlines, Louis Gallois, chief executive of EADS, the parent of Airbus, said Saturday. “We have the flexibility to go further if needed,” Mr. Gallois said.
The global economic slowdown has hit the airline industry hard, with passenger traffic expected to fall by 8 percent this year and cargo volumes down 17 percent. Just this month, the International Air Transport Association nearly doubled its forecast for 2009 industry losses to $9 billion from an earlier prediction of $4.7 billion.
Airbus and its U.S. rival, Boeing, are sitting on a combined order backlog of about 7,000 planes, built up over five years of steady expansion in passenger and cargo traffic. That boom ended abruptly when the credit crisis on Wall Street morphed into an all-out global panic when Lehman Brothers failed last autumn. Financing for new jet purchases began drying up and airlines began to delay or cancel orders.
“We are very sensitive to what will happen in the second half of the year, to see if we reach the bottom of the swimming pool,” Mr. Gallois said. “We have no capacity now to see what will be the depth of the crisis.”
Thomas O. Enders, the Airbus chief executive, said management could envisage production cuts “somewhere in the range of between 15 and 25 percent” in the years 2010 and 2011 if the slump in air travel continues.
Those forecast cutbacks, while severe, are still more modest than what some industry leaders have predicted in recent months. Steven Udvar-Hazy, chief executive of International Lease Finance Corp., the world’s largest buyer of commercial jets, said in April that global production by both Airbus and Boeing might need to fall by as much as 35 percent by the end of 2010.
Giovanni Bisignani, the secretary general of I.A.T.A., warned this month that global aircraft deliveries could fall by 30 percent next year.
Boeing has said it planned to keep production steady in 2009 while laying off 4,500 workers. So far, Boeing foresees slowing output on one of its assembly lines — for the long-range, widebody 777 — by 28 percent in 2010. Both Airbus and Boeing say they expect to deliver about the same number of planes to customers this year as in 2008.
“There’s a little bit of unreality,” said Nick Cunningham, an aerospace analyst at Evolution Securities in London. “Things are very, very bad. It’s just that some people aren’t feeling it yet.”
Mr. Gallois and Mr. Enders said Airbus expected to be able to manage its production slowdown without any job cuts. “But of course this has a limit,” Mr. Gallois said.
“We need to be careful in the way we manage our manpower,” Mr. Gallois said. “We have to be able to increase production again when it is needed.”
Airbus is eager to avoid fresh layoffs in the current economic environment and after eliminating 10,000 jobs in 2007 and 2008 as part of a painful restructuring aimed at reducing its euro-denominated cost base.
“Airbus will not countenance any large-scale layoffs for social and political reasons,” said Doug McVitie, managing director of Arran Aerospace in Dinan, France.
During the last downturn for the aviation industry, after the terrorist attacks in 2001, Airbus avoided layoffs and instead eliminated 6,000 jobs through early retirements and termination of temporary work contracts. Boeing cut its work force by 30,000 and drastically cut back production rates.
“Boeing and Airbus do exactly the same thing commercially — they build airplanes,” Mr. McVitie said. “It’s just easier to hire and fire in the U.S.”
Die Produktion soll im nächsten Jahr wohl zwischen 15 und 30% sinken, so Prognosen und Statements verschiedener Analysten und Entscheidungsträger. Die Prognose hängt sehr stark davon ab, wann mit einer Wirtschaftsbelebung gerechnet wird.
Airbus versucht nach eigener Aussage Entlassungen zu verhindern.
------------------
Zum letzten Satz: Das ist natürlich süßes Brot für die dummen Leute. Airbus entlässt fröhlich und zahlreich, natürlich ohne Sozialplan und Abfindung. Nur eben nicht die eigenen Leute, sondern "Zulieferer". Daher ähnliche "Nebelkerzen" immer mit etwas Salz zu sich nehmen: die großen Läden brauchen niemanden zu feuern, sie wälzen alles auf ihre Zulieferer und zT Leiharbeiter ab. Diese sind dann die klassischen Mitarbeiter zweiter Klasse (bei Zeitarbeitern kann man fast sagen dritter Klasse).