Ganz viele Neuigkeiten
Airbus "Innovation" Days, Leahy und Tim Williams haben gesprochen.
Von:
http://leehamnews.wordpress.com/2010/05/10/airbus-innovation-days-day-1/#more-2965
(eine idR sehr zuverlässige und gut informierte Quelle).
We’re at the Airbus Innovation Days and here are some highlights:
* Tom Williams, EVP Programmes, believes that a re-engined A320 family will eliminate the business case for the CSeries. The concern is that the CS100/300, which competes with the A319, will establish a “beachhead” from which competitors to the +150-seat airplane will be launched. (No kidding–we’ve been saying this for a couple of years now.)
* Williams believes Boeing will make a mistake to proceed with a replacement for the 737 in this decade because engine technology won’t be ready until the next decade to get the gains desired by the airlines.
* He does not believe Airbus should respond immediately with a replacement for the A320 if Boeing goes with a new plane because anything before 2024 won’t have enough fuel/operating cost reduction to justify the investment.
* Williams says the PW P1000G GTF is more technologically advanced than the CFM LEAP-X.
* Williams said it isn’t “feasible” to do nothing with the A320, which is why a re-engining is getting so much attention–but he adds that this isn’t a “done deal,” a decision whether to re-engine will come when the business case for Airbus and the airlines is made.
* The A340 is only a build-to-order airplane now.
* As previously announced, Airbus will take A320 production back to 36/mo from December. In connection with this, Williams remarked that the financial markets are coming back, which will make financing less reliant on export credit and Airbs customer financing.
* Although Airbus previously planned to take A380 production to four per month (prior to the industrial meltdown in this program), Williams now says three a month is “sensible.”
* Williams needs a lot of “convincing” to support an A380 freighter. Focus now has to be on the A380P, the A350 and the A320RE programs.
- A320NG würde die CSeries angreifen
- eine neue B737 wäre ein Fehler (vor 2020)
- so oder so, ein neuer A320 kommt nicht vor 2024, unabhängig von Boeing
- P&W GTF ist besser als Leap-X (CFM56-Nachfolger)
- A340 wird nur noch auf Nachfrage gebaut
- A380 Produktion geht auf 3 statt 4 pro Mona geplant
- Williams sieht keine Chance für einen A380F
John Leahy:
* Predicts 20 A380 orders this year vs 10 previously predicted.
* Reminds us that Airbus’ forecast for A380 is based on the point-to-point/hub-to-hub traffic of mega-cities which will grow from some 30 today to more than 80 over 20 years, requiring 1,000 A380s.
* Says conclusions by aerospace analysts that there are 852 surplus airplanes–which are the basis for forecasts that production reductions are necessary–is wrong. The number is closer to 450-500 and more at the lower end of this range.
* Believes Boeing is bluffing about a replacement 737 at this time, noting Boeing said the 7J7, Sonic Cruiser were false starts. (He omitted the seveal false starts on the 747 derivatives and his own missed forecast that the 7E7 would be another false start.)
* He’s adament that new engine technology is worth waiting for and that a re-engine program is a reasonable interim step but underscored that Airbus has not made a decision to procede with what he is now calling the A320 “Neo.” He also believes Boeing will follow with a 737 “Neo.” But if Airbus does nothing, neither will Boeing. Says Airbus could launch the program without customers rather than requiring a customer launch.
* Says a Blended Wing Body doesn’t work with fewer than 400 passengers.
- sieht 20 Orders für'n A380, gegen vormals 10 vorher gesagten
- betont die langfristigen Marktaussichten des A380
- denkt Boeing "blufft" bei der Idee einer neuen B737
- neue Triebwerke lohnen das Warten